For the first time since the Global Financial Crisis, Turkey has officially entered a recession after GDP fell 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 1.6% in the third quarter. Turkey’s economic contraction is the result of the sharp decline of the lira currency, aggressive interest rate hikes, and a credit bust that is just getting started. Turkey’s nascent recession and credit bust are symptoms of the bursting of an economic bubble that I’ve been warning about for the past several years. To summarize my warnings, a credit bubble formed in Turkey starting in the early-2000s, which led to an artificial economic boom. ... (full story)