A Fed pause and a trade truce has encouraged investors to put money to work in 2019. This environment has fostered recoveries in the activity and commodity– sensitive currencies which had been battered by protectionism last year. Our baseline views assume a continuation of this generally benign trend, although we feel the need to highlight one particular risk for the month of February. The US Commerce Department is due to report back to Donald Trump, by 17 February, on whether US auto and auto-part imports pose a national security threat. If so, import tariffs would be recommended and world trade would face a major ... (full story)