In his first press conference of 2019, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said risks surrounding the eurozone growth outlook have shifted to the “downside,” versus the “broadly balanced” risks he discussed just one month ago when the bank ended net asset purchases. We think Thursday’s downgraded growth assessment is a precursor to two changes in the ECB’s monetary policy stance later this year. First, we expect the ECB to change forward guidance in March 2019, which will validate the market’s expectation for the first rate hike. Currently, market interest rates indicate liftoff – defined as the first ... (full story)