2018 was all about the bearish flattening of the US Treasury curve and whether a move in the 2-10 year curve close to zero meant a US recession was imminent. After the sharp Trump/Fed/equity-led decline in US rates over the last two months of 2018, our interest rate strategy team now think the next major move in the US curve is a bearish re-steepening – perhaps by some 25bp. Some modest thaw in US-China trade relations, perhaps even a chance of a second UK Brexit referendum or US data showing the economy isn't slowing sharply could all drive ten year Treasury yields higher. US price data could also do it, since the ... (full story)