While trade policy has dominated headlines, we believe investors should focus on the collapse of Western Canadian Select (WCS) oil prices relative to global benchmarks, which represents the biggest exogenous risk to the Canadian economy. Canadian oil plunged from a peak of $58 (U.S. dollars) in May 2018 to a low of $21 earlier this month (source: Bloomberg) even as global prices were roughly unchanged or higher due to a combination of pipeline capacity, increased oil sands production and extra refinery maintenance in the U.S. Midwest. Until major pipeline projects are completed (late 2019 by our estimate), WCS will ... (full story)