It is a testament to the Federal Reserves communication and the evolution of investors' understanding that we can say that the rate hike that the central bank will deliver is not as important as what it says. A rate hike is a foregone conclusion. According to the CME's model, there is about an 85% chance of December hike discounted as well. The effective Fed funds rate is 1.92% with the target range of 1.75%-2.00%. The implied yield of the June 2019 is 2.62%. The market has 70 bp of tightening priced in through the first half of next year. In H2 19, there is another 20 bp discounted. The new information that ... (full story)