Recently, fears of a slowdown in global growth brought on by a trade war have led to turbulence in cyclical assets. The US Dollar has risen while commodities and emerging markets have struggled. The Chinese Yuan has depreciated significantly, recalling fears of the 2014-2016 industrial recession. This quarter, we examine the outlook for economic growth and inflation, and how a trade war may impact the economic environment. From there, we discuss asset allocation through the lens of this economic environment, including: A 4-quadrant look at the basic economic backdrop; Why we are underweight both stocks and bonds; Why ... (full story)