A done deal? Financial markets are pricing in a greater than 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates 25bp on Wednesday, and depending on which metric you look at, even a very small chance they go up by 50bp. We agree that a 25bp move- leaving the fed funds target rate range at 1.5% to 1.75%- is virtually certain given the excellent growth backdrop and rising inflation threat. A 50bp move would be an unnecessary shock for markets. So with a hike looking like a done deal, much of the focus on Wednesday will be on the Fed's so-called "dot diagram". The last forecast assessment, published in December, ... (full story)