The agreement of a Brexit transition deal yesterday was a genuine positive surprise for GBP markets – not least as investors had broadly scaled back their expectations of any progress being achieved as early as this week. While we do believe that it is the second-round effects of an agreed transition deal that will determine the future path of UK asset prices and sterling (see here), it is worth pointing out two key learning points for investors when it comes to pricing in short-term risks around Brexit: Despite all the huffing and puffing in the run-up to crunch talks, it is clear that both UK and EU officials are ... (full story)