T.S. Eliot tells us that April is the cruelest month. A great poet he was, but a trader he was not. Caesar was warned about the Ides of March, and investors may find the caution to be particular apropos now. Consider the congestion of events around March 15. A few days before, March 9 is ECB meeting. Although no policy change is likely, the press conference often elicits a market response. Headline inflation is moving toward the target, though core inflation remains stable and just a little above the 0.6% trough. Still, the risks of deflation have all but disappeared, while growth looks solid and above trend. The ... (full story)