Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz SE’s chief economic adviser, is warning traders not to get complacent about the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike next month. Given the minutes from the Fed’s Feb. 1 meeting and recent economic data, the market’s implied probability of an increase in March "seems too low," El-Erian tweeted Wednesday. He said a probability of 50 percent to 60 percent appears more appropriate. Futures indicate traders aren’t nearly that confident, reflecting about a 34 percent probability that officials boost rates a quarter-point March 15, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It would be the third ... (full story)