All of a sudden, after weeks of being fairly sanguine at the prospect of a Clinton victory in the US Presidential Election, markets are concerned they may have got it wrong. With a number of individual polls suggesting Trump is ahead, markets are now having to price the realistic prospect of a Trump victory. In short, that means the dollar is being sold off, safe havens (gold, yen, US Treasuries) are rallying, and risk plays (equities, emerging market assets) are under pressure as shown by the spike higher in the VIX volatility. Politics are “Trumping” the fundamentals and it is incredible to say but the market is ... (full story)