There has recently been some renewed optimism that the Federal Reserve could get up from the fence it has been sitting on since December of last year. As can be seen from the chart of the 2-year Treasury yield, a gauge of short-term interest rate expectations for the next 2 years, expectations have recovered to near pre-Brexit levels. The 2-year yield has managed to claw back to 70 basis points after dropping to around 0.5% in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote. The immediate aftermath of the vote saw a sharp sell-off in risk assets and a major rally in bonds. However, since then stocks have recovered with ... (full story)