US growth seems to have slowed sharply. Fed Kremlinologists are already wondering how the FOMC will word its next statement, so as to acknowledge the reality without sounding too panicky. But panic may be warranted; given the combination of slowing growth and a big deterioration of financial conditions, there’s growing talk that the Fed made an error in hiking rates. Oh, and market compensation for future inflation, which may not be a good indicator of expectations but surely contains some information, has plunged. It might still turn out OK. But it might not, and surely everyone would be feeling more comfortable if ... (full story)