Risk aversion since the start of the year courtesy of currency shenanigans from China and softer oil prices have triggered a JPY safe haven bid. The move lower in the USDJPY has prompted us to review our forecasts; clearly in periods of risk aversion a JPY safe haven bid is a dominant feature. That said, we would note that our changes are merely tweaks of magnitudes and timing, rather than a shift in our fundamental view. The expected Fed funds rate lift-off in December was always seen as a factor weighing on USDJPY (via risk aversion) with an upward trend reemerging in Q1-16. Now with uncertainties surrounding China ... (full story)