Next week will be crucial for the outlook of EUR/USD. The December ECB meeting, Yellen’s speeches at the Economic Club in Washington and the US Congress, as well as the November US NFP are likely to determine whether investors will continue to sell EUR and buy USD. Going into the ECB meeting, we expect a 10bp deposit rate cut and QE extension until March 2017. Draghi should also keep the door wide open for more easing if needed. This may seem conservative compared with market expectations that have moved towards deeper rate cuts or, indeed, more aggressive asset purchases of late. The more important point is that we ... (full story)