The Federal Reserve could be six weeks away from raising rates. The FOMC statement from the end of last month appeared to have lowered the bar of a move. It called the recent improvement in the labor market as "solid" and wanted to see "some" more. The Bloomberg consensus increase of 225k increase in the July nonfarm payroll report to be released Friday surely qualifies as "some" improvement, especially if reinforced by other details of the report. Average hourly earnings are expected to return to 2.3% year-over-year, where they were in April and May. This matches the August 2013 high and the July 2011 high, which ... (full story)