We expect the US likely added 215K jobs in June, as indicated by improved job market conditions reported by households and a pick-up in manufacturing activity data. Due to the 4 July holiday, the employment report will be released Thursday morning. The Consumer Confidence Index rose 2.2 index points in June. The employment reading was especially optimistic, with more reporting jobs plentiful (14.7% vs 14.2%) and fewer saying that jobs were hard to get (31.8% vs 32.2%). Having declined last month, weekly consumer surveys have also been improving steadily. Volatility in weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance ... (full story)