ECB interest rate announcement due 0745 EST on Thursday, Draghi press conference from 0830 EST. Consensus is for key rate to remain on hold at 0.25% but risk is for a cut in the order of 5-25bps. Further enhancement to dovish rhetoric is a near certainty, whilst the chance of new easing is about 50%. If the ECB does choose to ease this week, we expect ‘preventative’ not ‘corrective’ measures at this stage. This could be a good week to start positioning for medium-term EURUSD downside. The EUR and ‘corrective’ measures (25% chance of occurring this week, EURUSD spot ref: 1.350), Corrective measures should be defined ... (full story)