We expect no change to be announced to ECB policy rates nor the liquidity framework at the 6 February meeting. Generally speaking, macro indicators have remained broadly consistent with the ECB’s central case of a gradual recovery, implying a slow return to higher core inflation rates over the medium term. The current episode of EM stress is likely to be mentioned as an additional downside risk to growth, but not to the extent that it requires immediate action. However, inflation, rather than growth, remains the key driver for monetary policy in the near term, and the modest downside surprise in Eurozone flash HICP ... (full story)