Heading into this week’s top event risk, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) has worked itself into a position that necessitates a breakout. That looks like a perfect marriage of build up and catalyst from the FOMC rate decision. Yet, despite its technical predicament and the ominous approach of a key catalyst, clearing this congestion does not necessarily mean there is a new trend in store for the benchmark currency. Engaging risk aversion after years of leveraged investment into record high asset prices is difficult to muster. However, all the elements are there to feed the fire should the initial ... (full story)