The risks are skewed to EUR strength around toady's ECB rate decision and press conference, argues Barclays Capital. Barclays outlines 3 mains reasons behind this bullish EUR view: First, a refi rate cut should be largely priced in but the risk is that the ECB will leave the refi rate unchanged given its limited effectiveness. This is likely to be interpreted as a hawkish move and support the EUR. Second, as mentioned above, Barclays' base case is that there will be no announcement of non-standard measures to provide targeted support to peripheral SMEs. However, if the ECB does announce such a programme it will be ... (full story)