We forecast a small decline in the German IFO index of business climate in September, from 102.3 to 102.0, as opposed to consensus expectations centring on a small rise. The IFO was relatively resilient in H112 and in recent months, hence we think that there is limited potential for a strong rebound in the wake of the recent markets’ rally, despite this week’s upward correction in the manufacturing PMI index. We do expect some slight improvement in the expectations’ component (from 94.2 to 95.0) but a small decline in current conditions (to 111.0 from 111.2). Eurozone M3 money growth is likely to decline in August, ... (full story)