EUR/USD has met resistance close to 1.2515 as expected leading to a strong push lower towards 1.2400. • This now favours a further extension lower targeting the 1.2288 region once again. • The USD Index also appears strong in the short-term timeframe. However, we need to see a break over 82.89 (8 June high) to open up a full retrace to 83.542. This remains our central scenario, with a sustained push over this level then warning of a substantial extension higher. • We also note that from a weekly perspective, a sustained break under 1.2288 would target the support of a multi month falling channel somewhere in the ... (full story)