A Greek debt restructuring, so long in the making, is now mostly priced in and would likely upset FX markets only temporarily and in a limited manner. An exit from EMU would matter much more, not because Greece is an important economy but because there is no legal provision for leaving EMU and it would thus set a precedent. It is likely to spark a severe round of contagion, with the extent of it depending on reform progress and credibility in other countries under pressure. The initial pressure on EURUSD would be downwards and as it is driven by the EUR-side, also evident in other crosses. I would expect EURUSD to ... (full story)