Markets have caught up with our forecast of only two US rate cuts this year. Listening to recent Fed speak, we believe the central bank is also on the same page. The risk to our forecast is still two sided. We cannot rule out hikes nor earlier cuts. After yet another strong inflation report, both the market and the Fed now seems more aligned with our views that rate cuts will not come before after the summer, if at all this year. So far in 2024, Core CPI looks to be running close to 4% heading higher, compared to below 3% and falling which was the case towards the end of last year. The soft patch in macro data coming ... (full story)