Now Chair Powell has caved. Surprising in fact that we’ve not had a bigger reaction. But we think that’s coming, or at least part of a process that will ultimately see the 10yr back in the 5% area. The US 10yr has 5% written all over it With Chair Powell conceding that the inflation data has not been great, it's a tad surprising that there was not a bigger hit to the rate cut discount. As it is there is a 25bp cut practically discounted for September still, and indeed a lot can happen between now and then to validate a cut by then. But given what we have seen so far from the inflation data, the market would be ... (full story)