In July 2023 I accepted an invitation from the Court of Directors of the Bank of England to review economic forecasting at the Bank, with a particular emphasis on how forecasting can better support policymaking and communication during times of high uncertainty and structural change. This report is the product of that review. Earlier official reviews of the Bank’s forecasting include Stockton (2012)Opens in a new window and Independent Evaluation Office (2015). I build to some extent on that earlier work. However, in light of the passage of time and, especially, the challenging economic environment of recent years, a ... (full story)

The Bank of England was delighted that Dr Bernanke agreed to conduct a review on its behalf into the Bank’s forecasting and related processes during times of significant uncertainty. It is very grateful to Dr Bernanke for his ‘Forecasting for monetary policy making and communication at the Bank of England: a review’ (‘the Review’). The Review provides a careful and thorough assessment of the Bank’s current forecasting methods and the relationship between forecasts, monetary policy decisions and their communication. It sets out 12 recommendations that determine a clear direction of travel for the Bank’s forecasting ... (full story)