The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the target range for the federal funds rate (FFR) at 5.25 – 5.5 percent in its March 2024 meeting and, in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), continued to project a range for the FFR between 4.5 and 4.75 percent by the end of 2024. In contrast with experience through December 2023, futures markets summarized by the CME FedWatch Tool on the day following the meeting were in accord with the FOMC projections and also predicted a range for the FFR between 4.5 – 4.75 percent by the end of 2024. There is widespread agreement that the Fed fell “behind the curve” by ... (full story)