Markets are discounting only a minuscule chance that the ECB will cut rates this week, but they seem convinced that June will see the first rate cut – more than 24bp out of a 25bp cut are already discounted. Markets will therefore be more interested in how the ECB communicates about its plans beyond June. Here the market has been looking for around 90bp of overall easing over the course of 2024 for the past couple of weeks. This is slightly more than the 75bp of easing we foresee for the ECB in our base line scenario. More recently expectations for overall ECB easing were pared back somewhat, though, on the back of ... (full story)