The ECB is likely to confirm that it is marching towards a rate cut in June at its meeting next week. The overall tone of the message could still be dovish, as the prerequisites for rate cuts are already rather close to being met. • While an April cut is not totally out of the question, we think the ECB will give further signals that it is set on cutting rates at the June meeting. • Lagarde is likely to signal open-mindedness on what will happen after June. • The very small pricing for an April move makes betting on a surprise cut more attractive. • Also the overall message could be soft enough to support a dovish ... (full story)