Four big EUR questions heading into the ECB meeting: 1) Will the ECB remain fixated on a first rate cut in June? 2) Is inflation momentum turning? 3) What’s in the upcoming strategy review? 4) What’s happening to tenor basis? The ECB staff projections for inflation are likely to be revised down, again. This time to levels closer to 2% much sooner than in the December projections. At the same time, the ECB’s pushback against too early rate cut expectations has worked well and markets now “only” price 90bp rate cuts this year, adding to the risk of a dovish interpretation of President Lagarde’s press conference even if ... (full story)