The first hard data point for the eurozone economy in the first quarter did not provide reason for much optimism. Retail sales may have increased slightly after a sharp drop in December retail volumes but they are still well below the November level. This means that the January data point is still in line with the broad declining trend seen since late 2021. For the months ahead, things don’t look much better as the European Commission's monthly survey of retail trade shows that expected business is broadly unchanged for the months ahead and that inventories are not yet being built down. For inflation, this means that ... (full story)