Monday saw a moderately-sized rotation from the dollar into European currencies, despite the generally soft risk environment. There is a possibility that we are starting to see some month-end flows, and also that the risk of a US government shutdown is creeping into investors’ radar. There are currently no indications of stress in the bond market, but it has also been reported that Congress remains very much divided on spending measures. The deadline for some departments (including Energy and Transportation) is this Friday 1 March, and the rest would shut down if no deal is reached by 8 March. Our view for this week ... (full story)