A spectre is haunting markets – the spectre of hawkishness. This could prove to be a watershed week for traders who have been paring-back optimistic bets on monetary easing since the implied path of policy rates hit euphoric levels in mid-January (see "Is The Fed's Next Move A Rate Hike"). The perennial canary in the monetary coal mine, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, will be holding a policy meeting on Wednesday. Markets are pricing a touch over a one-in-four probability of a 25 basis point hike at that meeting, with a greater than 60% probability that a hike will be delivered by the end of May. Ouch. Obviously, ... (full story)