Financial markets and economic commentators’ views have seesawed in the three months since we last produced this “hawks and doves” note. The RBNZ hawks emerged from their nest at the release of the November Monetary Policy Statement, threatening to soar high and push the OCR to a new cycle high some time in 2024. However, the markets were less convinced by that hawkish view. Instead, they took their lead from the global doves who, with encouragement from the US Federal Reserve, charged back and helped drive forward expectations of OCR cuts. Some commentators even discussed a chance of a rate cut by mid-year. Some ... (full story)