In central banking, if you're not a step ahead, you're two steps behind. Economic policy choices shape results for several months into the future, not for today. Why it matters: This marks a delicate moment for the Federal Reserve, as the data sends mixed messages about whether continued expansion is in peril and whether inflation will continue its downward glide. Comments from a series of Fed officials last week suggest their view of the economy's likely path — a soft landing with continued disinflation, accompanied by rate cuts — remains intact. But the murky waters have made the policy path ahead look a little ... (full story)