Most forecasters and policymakers were surprised by the degree and persistence of high inflation in 2021 and 2022. These large misses in predicting inflation were preceded by an unprecedented level of money growth, bringing renewed attention to quantity-theoretic linkages between inflation and money growth. Some analysts view high inflation in 2021 and 2022 as unsurprising and a predictable consequence of rapid money growth. Indeed, a simple forecast using only lagged inflation and money growth would have signaled the rise of inflation starting in early 2021 and the disinflation throughout 2023 relative to the 12 ... (full story)