Global economic growth, as measured by GDP tends to average at 3% over the long run. This year we see global growth running at a sub-average of 2.5% (see the chart below) after 3.1% in 2023. Institutions like the IMF are more optimistic, estimating 3.1% for 2024 and 3.2% for 2025. {chart} The “heatmap” below shows the evolution of economic growth across the largest economies in the world. GDP growth in 2023 was weaker compared to 2021, particularly in Europe and parts of the emerging world. {table} We often reference the Purchasing Managers Indices (or PMIs) as leading indicators of growth across manufacturing and ... (full story)