In our previous GDP tracker, published in January, we observed that GDP grew by 0.3 per cent in November, but contracted by 0.2 per cent in the three months to November relative to the previous quarter. In line with this profile of subdued economic activity, we forecast GDP to remain flat in the fourth quarter of this year. Today’s data suggest that monthly GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in December, following growth of 0.2 per cent in November. This monthly figure was mainly driven by decreasing output in the services sectors, particularly in the wholesale and retail trade category. Looking at the broader picture, GDP ... (full story)