In December, I set out how I thought monetary policymaking should be best considered as engineering rather than a science at present. What did I mean by this? Having been hit by a series of unprecedented shocks – the departure from the European Union, a once-in-a-hundred-year pandemic and the start of the biggest war in Europe for 80 years – the UK economy had been subject to significant volatility. And, as the magnitude of the swings in the economic outcomes we monitor had gotten larger, so too had the magnitudes of the changes we have needed to forecast. In response to repeated supply shocks, this has been ... (full story)

• Need more evidence to be confident that UK economy is progressing as per forecast. • My focus has shifted to thinking about how long rates need to remain at current level. • Will look at how pay growth and demand are influencing firms' pricing decisions. This just reaffirms that there are different lines of thinking within the BOE at the moment. That was already evident from the bank rate vote last week. Breeden's view is one that is more aligned to the overall policy stance while Dhingra showed which side she is on yesterday here. (full story)