Markets are starting to realize that the upcoming rate cuts will not look like a normal cycle. Recent commentary by the Fed and continued strong data means we might have to wait much longer for US rates to go lower. The market is dialing back the pricing of rate cuts backed by continued strong data and commentary by the Fed. For the central bank to cut in March, we would need to see low inflation prints for January and February, which does not seem unlikely, but the risk is the Fed will wait and in the meantime inflation will start to move higher again on increases freight rates and renewed wage pressure. In the ... (full story)