Consumers definitely have a pulse. Retail sales put in the strongest quarterly gain since the start of 2023. This counteracts the narrative that consumers are flat on their backs. Retail sales volumes were up by about 4½% q/q SAAR in Q4. As chart 1 shows, that’s the biggest quarterly jump since 2023Q1 and 2022Q4. Spending hit a soft patch over Q2 and Q3 last year for multiple reasons beyond just the effects of rates on some households, but the fact sales sprang back to life into the final quarter offers evidence against more bearish narratives. This calculation is based upon what we know from Statcan about monthly ... (full story)