We have read plenty of analysis on what the Federal Reserve (Fed) should do as it decides when to start lowering interest rates this year. Much of the analysis is well-intentioned as well as based on very good arguments. However, some of these arguments seem to be based on a presumption of perfect foresight. That is, the analysts who make these arguments seem to feel that they know, with certainty, what is going to happen in the future. We are a bit humbler when we make our arguments. Although we have a forecast of what we think is going to happen, we never know when and if the economy could throw us a curve ball. ... (full story)