There is a common pattern where things overshoot into year-end and then reverse in the new year as the seasonal flows dominate in December and then new money comes in January and everyone who got marked to market at bad levels on 31DEC can’t take the pain of a minor reversal. This was the pattern at the turn of 2022/2023 and again this year. Everything everyone was jammed to the gills with (bond longs, megatech longs, JPY, AUD, etc.) has been torched. We discussed this in last week’s Speedrun as the buffalo stampede idea. My thesis going into 2024 was that interest rate markets have overshot and the return of housing ... (full story)