China heads into 2024 with relatively loose policy settings, but private sector sentiment constrained by property pessimism. Stimulus will reduce tail risks but we don't expect it will be sufficient to prevent the downtrend in growth to persist. We think three key themes will shape the macro outlook in 2024. First, the economy will muddle through a tightly managed, multi-year clean-up process. The old "pre-sales" commodity housing model no more exists. Transitioning to a new model that boosts the role of State-directed public and social housing could prompt further consolidation among onshore property ... (full story)