The federal funds rate target was last increased in July, and a likely announcement tomorrow to leave the rate unchanged at 5.25/5.50% will extend past a half year the cresting point. In more monetary policy cycles than not, the interval between a final rate increase and the first cut of an ensuing cycle of rate reductions has not exceeded a half year by much. Despite repeated rhetorical efforts by Fed officials to squelch speculation about a near-term rate cut, investors continue to chomp at that bit. Moreover, December meetings of the FOMC tend to attract high anticipations, since staff forecasts are updated then ... (full story)