October news on CPI inflation was all the doctor recommended and has markets spinning and repricing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential path forward. That is, markets are already assuming that the Fed is closer to lowering interest rates than what they feared just a month ago when the yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly surpassed 5.0%. Since then, yields have moved back down to about 4.5% and continue to trend lower. The market expects (at 100%, according to the CME FedWatch tool) the Fed to be done increasing interest rates this year and are already pricing in lower rates starting in May of 2024. But as we have ... (full story)