To describe the outcome of this week’s European Central Bank Governing Council meeting as a pause might inadequately capture the firmness with which policymakers are actually on hold at the moment, meaning that a rate move is virtually excluded. We also don’t think that President Christine Lagarde’s post-meeting rhetoric is going to encourage the idea that monetary authorities have only really paused in the sense of regarding their policy tightening as a work in progress to be resumed come December with yet another hike. Why should she, against a backdrop of great uncertainty, with the pass-through of previous ... (full story)