Our recession-watch here started shortly after the Fed kicked off its rate hikes in March 2022. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which calls out recessions, defines them as broad economic downturns that include downturns in the labor market. So, among other things, we’re looking for sharp increases in weekly claims for unemployment insurance benefits, our most immediate measure of the labor market; they’re highly correlated with recessions as defined by the NBER. Initial unemployment insurance claims backtracked further. Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits by people who’ve lost ... (full story)